Australia vs Pakistan Third ODI Tips - Fiery visitors could surprise
09 Nov 2024
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Australia v Pakistan ODI Series Preview & Tips - Hosts to get series off to a winning start
- Australia's international season begins against Pakistan at MCG in ODI format
- Key absences in the Australian squad with Cummins and Stoinis making a return
- Pakistan arrives confident after 2-1 test series win over England, leveraging Jason Gillespie's insights
Australia's captain Pat Cummins (Getty Images)
- Australia v Pakistan ODI Series Preview
- The Venue
- Match Preview
- Predictions
- Stat Attack
- Squads
Australia v Pakistan ODI Series Preview
Australia’s international season for 2024/5 starts on Monday at the MCG against Pakistan in an ODI match in what is expected to be a tough contest between two contrasting teams.
Australia faces questions over what to do with a squad that are missing such big names as Mitchell Marsh and Travis Head, while both Marcus Stoinis and the skipper Pat Cummins return.
Cummins has proven himself one of the most valuable players in the game over many years and his captaincy skills are up there with the very best.
Pakistan, by contrast, will no doubt be in a confident mood after their 2-1 victory against England in the Tests that concluded last week.
This will be a contest of proven winners versus a team that is rising in confidence and will be looking to continue to play tough, smart cricket against class opposition.
Pakistan’s coach Jason Gillespie, with his knowledge of Australian conditions, will provide an edge for this resilient Pakistani team. Naseem Shah, Babar Azam and Shaheen Shah Afridi are all back in the Pakistani squad.
The Venue
The Melbourne Cricket Ground conditions in these early season games can be challenging with a stiff swirling breeze and a hard drop-in pitch producing plenty of top edges that then provide challenging outfield catches.
The bowlers that contain by bowling a containing length that forces the batter onto the back foot and then pitches the ball up can get plenty of LBWs and caught behind decisions go their way.
The away swinger to the wicketkeeper and first slip will have more value at this stage of the season compared to the ball that hits the splice of the bat due to the relatively low bounce on offer now.
The spinner that can produce vicious top spin in their deliveries can be rewarded if the batter swings too early and the outfielders can back them up.
The large outfield is nowhere near as challenging as it used to be and a confident batter can hit over the rope so long as they strike the ball well.
Match Preview
Australia has the talent and the experience and the home advantage. Fraser-McGurk could be a star for Australia and if he can focus on some shot selection he should score heavily with the bat.
My concern when looking at the playing list is that it strikes me as a team that is ever so slightly just past their peak.
They beat England 3-2 in September in the ODI series but this wasn’t the thumping victory that we have come to expect.
Australia will have to work out a way to score runs against quality bowler which might mean playing a straight bat for ones and twos mixed in with the occasional big-hit.
Teams that play under Jason Gillespie don’t fold because he doesn’t allow that to happen. So often in the past when things went wrong for Pakistan in Australia they stayed wrong.
This team also has a collection of steady accumulators who can give the big the shots a rest over the long journey of a 50 over match.
Kamran Ghulam did the job in the Tests against England so it’s not inconceivable that they can do the same against Australia in a one-dayer in Australia.
Shaheen Shah Afridi left-arm fast deliveries could be exactly the right solution if he can bowl with the wind at his back. Pakistan have a fair chance of victory if they believe in themselves and play well through the tough times.
Predictions
This should be a good contest but the sheer value Captain Pat should be enough to get Australia home. Patience and accumulation will be the themes of this game and there are just so many match winners of this type on the Australian team.
Pakistan have a fantastic coach in Jason Gillespie and they have confidence based on success but they haven’t played ODI cricket in almost a year. Playing conditions are a lot more similar in this era but they can still prove difficult to overcome.
Australia to win by 3 wickets or 50 runs. I rate the match 60/40 in favour of Australia. $1.80 for the win for Australia is a reasonable price.
Pat Cummins will be hungry to prove that he still has it after missing the England tour. Still a class player and a very smart captain who should overcome the deficit of Mitchell Marsh and Travis Head. Class will tell-if not in this match than later on in the series.
Stat Attack
- Babar Azam averages 56 with the bat in ODI cricket after 117 matches. He has resigned twice from the captaincy in order to concentrate on his batting.
- Naseem Shah has a batting average 15 runs higher than his bowling average after 14 ODI games > 31 v 16.
- Pat Cummins last played in an ODI match on the 19th November 2023 against India which of course was the World Cup which Australia won.
- The last time these two teams met Australia won by 62 runs on the 20th of October 2023 in Bengaluru. The now retired Dave Warner scored 163.
- Matt Short in his latest ODI scored 58 off 30 balls in Australia’s victory against England on September 29th.
- Pakistan last played ODI cricket on the 11th November 2023 at Eden Gardens in Kolkutta. They lost to England by 93 in what became their exit from the World Cup.
Squads
Australia ODI squad: Pat Cummins (capt), Sean Abbott, Cooper Connolly, Jake Fraser-McGurk, Aaron Hardie, Josh Hazlewood, Josh Inglis, Marnus Labuschagne, Glenn Maxwell, Matthew Short, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, Adam Zampa
Pakistan ODI squad: Aamir Jamal, Abdullah Shafique, Arafat Minhas, Babar Azam, Faisal Akram, Haris Rauf, Haseebullah (WK), Kamran Ghulam, Mohammad Hasnain, Mohammad Rizwan (WK), Muhammad Irfan Khan, Naseem Shah, Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha, Shaheen Shah Afridi.
Verdict
ODI cricket doesn’t get a lot of love these days but there is a lot of value if you know where to look.
The longer format means the results are more consistent and the players who focus on making smart decisions all the time tend to shine a lot more than the X-factor players.
Look to back players with at least 50 ODIs to their name and if possible go to the game. You can judge which team is hungrier just by the warm up routine and the body language they display.
Australia Win
Match Result
@-125.00 - 3 Units
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Pat Cummins
Player of the Match
@500.00 - 1 Unit
25 SC no deposit & 250,000 GC
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Get 25 Stake Cash & 250,000 Gold Coins when you sign up with code NEWBONUS at Stake.us. USA only. Excludes certain States including NY,NV,ID, KY,WA. 18+ only. Terms and Conditions apply.
